EUR/USD
On Friday, August 23, the EUR/USD pair ended with an increase of 60 base points. This growth of the European currency was caused by the speech of Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, in which he did not give any signals regarding the new easing of monetary policy of the Fed, but did not dispel the expectations of the currency market regarding the readiness of the regulator for new cuts in the key rate. In terms of wave analysis, euro growth has been brewing for several days. Bears could not push the pair under the minimum of the expected wave C, which left a good chance of building a wave with an upward trend within the new upward section. As I have said many times, the main issues remain on the news background. It has not changed over the past week and is still treated as negative for the euro. Separate economic reports from the European Union and America may be in favor of the euro, but in general, the news background remains in favor of the dollar. Today, August 26, several important reports on orders for durable goods will be released in America at once. Expectations of the forex currency market are 2.0% growth on the main indicator, which after two cuts of 2.8% and 2.3% will be justified. Thus, an increase of more than 2.0% on orders can return the demand for the US currency. However, I believe that there will not be an excess of a sufficiently high forecast, so the dollar will not receive strong support, which will allow the instrument to continue to increase in the framework of wave C.
Purchase targets:
1.1264 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci
1.1322 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1027 – 0.0% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro/dollar pair completed the construction of wave b. I recommend buying a pair with targets located above the mark of 1.1250. I recommend selling the instrument not before receiving confirmation of the readiness of the market to build a new downward set of waves.
GBP/USD
On August 23, the GBP / USD pair gained 30 bp, which fits into the current wave marking, which suggests the construction of a new upward trend section, at least corrective. Thus, the increase in the pound may continue, since at the moment its consolidation is very small. I expect to build three-wave structures up. Thus, it is advisable to buy the pound now, but still do not forget about caution, as the news background remains unfavorable for the British currency. Just a week later, the UK Parliament will return from vacation and resume a series called "Brexit", which attracts more than Mexican series. MPs will have to immediately decide on a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson. And it's time for Boris Johnson to seriously think about suspending the work of Parliament if he wants to still achieve Brexit just in time, October 31. That is why I believe that the markets can at any time start to get rid of the pound again, as almost any news will be treated as negative for Britain, Brexit, and the pound.
Sales targets:
1.2016 – 0.0% according to Fibonacci
Purchase targets:
1.2306 – 38.2% according to Fibonacci
1.2401 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The downward section of the trend is previously considered completed. Thus, it is expected to build an upward trend correction section with the first targets located near the calculated marks of 1.2306 and 1.2401, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% of Fibonacci. You can buy a pound, but I do not recommend doing it in large volumes.