Fundamental Analysis, March 01, 2011


The price of crude oil remained under the level of 100 United States dollars for one barrel of oil after Saudi Arabia calmed the market concerns of a possible oil shortage, but the monthly close had oil rising by over 5% on the background of the political events in North African and Middle Eastern countries. Crude oil futures locked yesterday on 96.97 United States dollars for one barrel of crude oil, a 0.9% drop.

The price of gold, which continues closing in on the high of 1,432.5 United States dollars for one ounce of gold, originally recorded in December, had closed yesterday at 1,409.9 United States dollars for one ounce of gold, after a slight climb at the New York Commodities Exchange.


The International Energy Agency had estimated that the decline in crude oil production due the events in Libya has reached at least a level of 850 thousand barrels. Libya, whose daily oil production is 1.6 million barrels, is the ninth largest oil producer in OPEC, exporting most of its oil to Europe. As a response to that, Saudi Arabia increased its oil production by 8%, in order to make up for the decline in Libyan oil export levels.


On the American macroeconomic front, provide consumption rose in January by a more moderate rate than expected of only 0.2%, with the economists predicting double that rate at 0.4%. Furthermore, the procurement managers' index for the Chicago area of the United States leaped up surprisingly in February to a level of 71.2 points as compared to January's rate of 68.8 points. Economists' prediction is was for a decline of the index to a level of 67.7 points. We remind the reader that an index rate over the level of 50 points to a growth of economic activity, while an index rate under that level reflects a shrinking level of economic activity.