EUR/USD - 4H.
On December 17, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the correction level of 76.4% (1.1133), after which a reversal in favor of the European currency and a return to the level of 76.4%. The slight fall in the US currency at night was caused by the approval of all the charges brought against Donald Trump by the US Congress. The rebound of the euro-dollar pair from the Fibo level of 76.4% will again work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall of quotes in the direction of the next correction levels of 61.8% (1.1104) and 50.0% (1.1080). The pair also closed under the upward trend range, which indicates a change in the general mood of traders in the market to "bearish". Now, I am waiting for the rebound from the correction level of 76.4% and the resumption of the fall. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
So, the impeachment of Donald Trump was announced. However, this is not surprising. Yesterday, I wrote that the vote in Congress will be held exclusively on the "party" basis. Since the majority of Democrats in the House of Representatives, they freely and unanimously adopted both articles of accusation against Donald Trump. Out of 430 votes, 230 congressmen voted for the article "on abuse of power", and 229 congressmen voted for the article "on obstruction of Congress". And just as yesterday, I did not doubt that Congress would approve impeachment of Trump, now there is no doubt that the Senate will not approve the impeachment. For the US President to officially leave his post, at least 2/3 of the Senate must vote for this decision, the majority of whose members are Republicans, who, of course, will not vote against Trump. Thus, the US president has practically nothing to worry about except his popularity ratings among the population, which could be seriously affected by the trade wars and the impeachment procedure itself.
Also, immediately after the vote in Congress, an official statement was made by representatives of the White House, who called the whole process of impeachment "the most shameful political episode in the history of the nation." The document also says: "Without receiving a single Republican vote and without providing any evidence of wrongdoing, the Democrats pushed illegal articles of impeachment to the President through the House of Representatives. The Democrats decided to act on a one-party basis, even though the President did absolutely nothing wrong." And of course, patriotic statements were not complete: "The American people cannot be deceived by such shameful behavior."
Well, this story should be completed in the US Senate, after which the normal work of the government and Congress will be restored for some time. Exactly until the election campaigns begin, in which opponents, as usual, will remember all the sins of the opposite side. The US dollar is reacting quite restrained. However, the information background of Thursday is practically absent, so traders still have to pay attention to political topics, in the absence of economic reports.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
On December 19, traders will try to resume the fall of the euro-dollar pair. The latest reports from the eurozone again showed weakness, and today there will be no reports in the EU or the US. Thus, today I am waiting for the rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 76.4%, which will allow bear traders to sell the pair again with the targets of 1.1104 and 1.1080.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of October 21, 2019, and November 29, 2019.