GBP/USD. April 17. Bears need to stay below the level of 1.2516. In this case, the pair may fall further

GBP/USD – 1H.

Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to fall after fixing quotes under the upward trend corridor. Thus, the mood among traders remains "bearish". There are no new graphical constructions on the hourly chart at the moment. But a new downward corridor may soon be built. According to the latest information from the health sector, the UK may soon overtake Italy and Spain in the number of infected with coronavirus and become a focal point of infection in Europe. Such conclusions are made by doctors based on the belated response of the government of Boris Johnson to the epidemic. Let me remind you that initially there was information that the quarantine in Britain would be very easy, and Boris Johnson and his administration believe that it would be better if a large part of the country's population got sick with the virus and formed a collective immunity. However, then quarantine was nevertheless introduced, but still remains rather weak. It is also reported that in the near future negotiations on the agreement between the EU and Britain will resume between delegations in video mode.

GBP/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and anchored under the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516). Thus, the fall of quotes can be continued on April 17 in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2303). No indicator has any pending divergences today. Closing the pair's exchange rate above the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of the British currency and resume the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2777).

GBP/USD – Daily.

As seen on the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and returned to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2463). Fixing quotes below this level will work in favor of a further fall in quotes towards the next Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2215).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the top two trend lines, but in the long term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On Thursday, there was no news or reports in the UK again. In America, one report was released on applications for unemployment benefits. It was again extremely negative - +5 million. The total number of people who applied for benefits and therefore lost their jobs in the last 4 weeks is almost 22 million. However, the US currency still continued to grow in such conditions.

The economic calendar for the US and the UK:

No news from the UK is expected again on April 17. Also, no news or reports are expected from America. Thus, the information background will not be available today.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The pound continues to lose its attractiveness in the eyes of major market players. The new COT report, which will be released today, may show a further reduction in the total number of contracts. The overall advantage remains on the long side, but it is absolutely minimal: 160,000-154,000. During this week, the price of the British pound began to fall, so major players could continue to get rid of long-term contracts. We will receive confirmation or refutation this afternoon.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:

I believe that today we should consider selling the British dollar with a target of 1.2303 since the closing was performed under the corrective level of 61.8% on the 4-hour chart. I recommend buying the British currency with a target of 1.2777 (and, consequently, closing all purchases) if the pair makes a consolidation above the level of 1.2516.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.