The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for March 31, 2011

4-hour timeframe

Overview:
The euro has not strengthened the sell signal, the price could not pass the Ichimoku Cloud, as a result we see a new buy signal without a target level. The formed sell signal is strong and not confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, for up trading it is recommended to wait until the current signal is confirmed (the Chinkou Span fixates above the price graph). In this case the first target for the upside movement is 1.4206 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second resistance level at 1.4324. Downside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.4110), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the upside movement, the lines are slightly diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, thus indicating current upside movement, if it reverses down this will denote the beginning of a correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the buy signal strengthens (the Chinkou Span fixates above the price graph) and trade up with target at 1.4206 and further to 1.4324. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4110. If the MACD reverses down, it is recommended to cut long positions.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.