AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0204-1.0580 (wave C of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart) and now is developing corrective wave 4. Within this wave there are A-B-C subwaves (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave C still in development. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0285-1.0580, 1.0204-1.0580, and expansions off 1.0580-1.0483-1.0511.
Supports:
- 1.0398-92 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements, already achieved
- 1.0354-48 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret
- 1.0257 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0580 - this wave is not developed yet.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down, it's preferable to look for shorts when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-60 pips to go).
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.