AUD/USD analysis for February 26, 2013

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
For the last few days, the AUD/USD pair was trading downwards, impulsive wave 3 coloured blue of the bigger (3) wave coloured green was developing. During the Monday's European session we could observe ascending movement from 1.0260 towards the 1.0327 level. Therefore, during the New York session this currency pair did not manage to hold this level, and the price retraced to the 1.0246 level. Today the AUD/USD pair is trading around 1.0263, and we are expecting to see the price around 1.0100 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account the fact that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.0103 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0339 level as stop loss.

Support and resistance
(S3) 1.0201 (S2) 1.0231 (S1) 1.0249 (PP) 1.0279 (R1) 1.0309 (R2) 1.0327 (R3) 1.0357

Trading forecast
Proceeding from the Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at 1.0250 with stop loss at 1.0339 and take profit at 1.0103 are recommended.