The spot rate is currently approaching the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1.4970 suggesting a decline. However, a break of this level will initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 1.4970 with the 1st objective at 1.4910 and then at 1.4890. A breakthrough of 1.4990 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.4970 with the 1st objective at 1.5030 and then at 1.5050. A breakthrough of 1.4950 will invalidate this scenario.