AUD/USD analysis for May 15, 2013

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair has continued to trade downwards, and our wave count is showing that we are currently at the end of the sub-wave 3 (coloured green) of the bigger wave (C) (coloured red). Yesterday, during the early Asian session we could observe small ascending movement from 0.9952 towards the 1.0003 level. Therefore, during the European and New York sessions this major currency did not manage to hold this levels and the price has dropped to a new low at 0.9875 level. At the moment the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.9875 area and we expect to see the retrace in the corrective 4 wave (coloured green). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 4 should retrace 23.6% of wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 0.9977 (23.6% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 0.9851 level as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9713 (S2) 0.9795 (S1) 0.9840 (PP) 0.9922 (R1) 0.9967 (R2) 1.0049 (R3) 1.0094
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9900 with stop loss at 0.9851 and take profit at 0.9977 are recommended.