GBPUSD: Daily analysis for May 21, 2013

Daily chart: The cable recovered from the sharp drop happened last Friday, rebounding from the support at the 1.5159 level to the resistance at 1.5270. I do not see this pair rising to resistance level 1.5357, due to recent economic data in the UK have been mixed and have not provided enough optimism among investors to generate buy orders in this pair. However, if the GBPUSD pair breaks this resistance level 1.5270, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.5357 or, if the pair encounters strong resistance at the 1.5270 level, it is expected to fall to the level of support 1.5159, which also has a bullish trendline. The MACD indicator is in negative territory, showing signs of weakness in the bearish trend for the moment.



H4 chart: The GBPUSD pair is trying to break the resistance level 1.5260 and if it succeeds, it is expected to rise to resistance level 1.5341, which is the 200-day moving average. On the other hand, we must consider that the GBPUSD pair stays below the 200-day moving average, which supports a bearish outlook in this chart and if so, the pair may not rise to the resistance level at 1.5341, all depends on the economic data released in the UK today. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.



H1 chart: On this chart, we can see that the GBPUSD pair is forming a lower high pattern to rise to the resistance level 1.5296, which also has the 200-day moving average. It is very possible that the pair finds resistance at the 200-day moving average and starts to decline in the short term to the support level at 1.5198, where it formed a strong Point of Control (POC). The MACD indicator is showing weakness in the bullish trend at the moment, which may indicate that the GBPUSD pair could fall in the next few hours, as I said earlier, everything depends on the economic data published today.



Fundamental Outlook: At 08:30 GMT the UK CPI y/y (Previous: 2.4% / Forecast: 2.3%) is published, if the current reading is lower than the forecast, it is possible that the GBPUSD pair could do bearish movements during the hour.



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place SELL orders (short) only if the GBPUSD pair breaks with a bearish candlestick, the support level is at 1.5249, take profit is at 1.5198, and stop loss is at 1.5496.