Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 4, 2013

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.7071

R2: 1.6995

R1: 1.6933 (Important short-term resistance)

Current Spot: 1.6863

S1: 1.6829

S2: 1.6801 (Recent low)

S3: 1.6762

Technical summary:

The wave path, we expected yesterday, took on a slightly different path as blue wave iii of red wave v (see the 15 minute chart below) extended more than expected and blue wave iv became an expanding triangle, that meant a deeper decline in wave v towards 1.6801. In short-term we would like to see support at 1.6829 protect the downside for a break above minor, but important, resistance at 1.6933 as a break above here will be the first good indication, that wave ii is in place and wave iii higher towards 1.7274 and 1.8228 is developing. The risk is a break below 1.6801, that would delay the expected rally for a move closer to 1.6762 before going up.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR or buy after a break above 1.6933 and keep your stop at 1.6800.