AUD/USD analysis for September 16, 2013

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week, the AUDUSD pair was trading upwards, corrective wave (c) (coloured blue) of the bigger wave 4 (coloured red) was developing. During Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 0.9223 towards the 0.9266 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this levels and the price retraced back to the 0.9223 level. We can consider this move as the end of the Triangle 4 wave (coloure green). At the moment, the AUDUSD pair is trading around 0.9340 and we are expecting to see strong bearish movement within next sessions. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 5 should retrace 123.6% of wave 4, we can define potential targets with measuring wave 4 with take profit at 0.8754 (123.6% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at the 0.9500 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9170 (S2) 0.9197 (S1) 0.9220 (PP) 0.9247 (R1) 0.9270 (R2) 0.9297 (R3) 0.9320

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.9250 with stop loss at 0.9500 and take profit at 0.8754 are recommended.