AUD/USD is moving within wave 5 (from 1.0784) of medium term downtrend - colored red in the chart. These five waves are part of wave C of larger degree from 1.1063 (colored magenta in the chart). Within wave 5 there are four subwaves (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave 4 still developing from 0.9928.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.8066-1.1079, and expansions off 1.1063-1.0679-1.0784, 1.0784-1.0375-1.0522, 1.0522-1.0301-1.0397.
Supports:
- 0.9928 = .382 retracement, already hit (!!!)
- 0.9860 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9818 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9779 = SXOP
- 0.9573 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0522-0.9928.
Resistances:
- 1.0155 = .382 ret
- 1.0225 = .50 ret
- 1.0295 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (current prices).
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.