Fundamental Analysis, August 12, 2011

In yesterday's session the technical bounce expected after a week of hard falls finally happened. The bags were at oversold levels.


Europe is experiencing a critical situation. The Eurozone member countries do not have a good fiscal health, have high debt levels and more and more doubts about the affordability of these countries. Also, the region's macroeconomic indicators are showing mixed results and sustained growth.

Specifically in France, the cost of sovereign borrowing is growing significantly and investors are wary of buying debt from another country other than Germany. The spread of the 10-year yields between French and German bonds is growing day by day, even keeping both rated "AAA", currently reaching a peak of almost one percentage point. On the other hand, the 5-year CDS of France yesterday reached a record 184 points.

The key to today's session will be two U.S. macro data: retail sales, expected positive and Trust University of Michigan, which in principle could be weaker but we do not assume a destabilizing factor in the market.