Gold is holding the ground and moving to higher levels. The starting of the year 2014 makes some glimpses on gold. Strong lower level buying shows green ticks in the chart. To start a new bull run, prices will need to consolidate 6 months before it makes a new cycle. Gold has successfully crossed this stage. It holds its June lows at the level $1,180 and make higher low at the level of $1,182. If we assume the new cycle started in gold, there is a possibility of В asset class shifting. Equity markets are in a strong bull trend making new highs.
As the charts speaking some pull back possibility in the yellow metal prices. We can clearly tell gold bull trend has not started yet. This is a bull phase in a strong bear market.В On the other hand, we are recommending to buy on dips and hold in the longer term (couple of years) it carry some risk because it is not good to catch a falling knife. The main concern for bulls is, when and where the prices will be bottomed out? For bears, from where the prices will fall again to create a new lows in the charts. If we go through the charts we can get answers for bulls and bears as well. As per the data from SPDR Trust total gold in trust 793.12 tonnes. At the beginning of this year it was 794.62 tonnes.
Longer term - Monthly and Weekly charts
In the weekly charts, oscillators sign a positive divergence. A bit pull back possible. Weekly close above $1,293 makes more bullish on the cards.
Resistance- $1,286-$1,293В
Medium-term daily charts
In the daily charts, oscillators sign an overbought indications. Gold holding above 21EMA at the level of $1,249.
Resistance- $1,256 $1,268
Support- $1,232 $1,200В
Intra view - hourly charts
In the daily charts, oscillators sign a overbought position. In Asia's session gold is trading at the level of $1,252. For the last couple of days we recommended sell on rallies. We are continuing for the targets $1,150, $1,100. Negative divergence is in the hourly charts.
Resistance- $1,256, В $1,268.
Support- $1,249, $1,239.В
Until prices hold above the support level of $1239-$1242, the green candles will continue in the chart if it trades above the level of $1,256 for $1,268, $1,292.
If we assume the uneven case if gold successfully close aboveВ the level of $1,268, it can fly some more higher in the charts up to the level of $1,293.