Gold analysis for January 17, 2014

Gold prices are making an upward bounce that is not impulsive. Prices are making an overlapping formation with positive slope and have reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1,256 to $1,233.

Prices are moving upwards in a corrective pattern within the purple trend channel as shown above in the one hour chart. Once this channel breaks downwards, we should expect the next leg down towards $1,200 to start. As said in our previous analysis, it is important for entire wave structure for prices to break below $1,220 in order to confirm that the rise from $1,180 is a three wave move. The short- term support is found at $1,237 and short-term resistance is at $1,248.

Our view remains bearish for all time frames. Even if prices make another upside move towards $1,270, our bearish scenario and longer term view will not have changed. We still believe that prices will eventually make new lows towards $1,140. The daily chart continues to support our bearish view as prices seem that they are making only a small upward corrective move inside a bigger downward trend.