Gold is trading around $4,064, above the 5/8 Murray line and above the 21 SMA, within a secondary uptrend channel formed inside the main uptrend channel. Technically, gold could continue to rise in the coming days until it reaches the upper band of the downtrend channel around $4,240.
If, in the coming hours, gold consolidates above the 21-day SMA around $4,037 or $4,015—a level that coincides with the lower band of the uptrend channel—both levels could be viewed as a zone to open long positions with targets at the upper band of the uptrend channel around $4,161.
If bearish momentum prevails and gold breaks below the psychological level of $4,000, the outlook could remain negative, with gold reaching $3,960 in the coming days and possibly even hitting the lower band of the downtrend channel around $3,790.
We should monitor the $4,015 area in the coming hours; above this level, any pullback or technical rebound could be considered a level to enter long positions. XAU/USD is expected to reach $4,230 and could even reach the 200 EMA around $4,323 in the coming days.
Below the psychological level of $4,000, our bullish outlook could change, and this would be seen as a negative signal to sell in the coming days.