EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is falling below the psychological level of 1.1300.The election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor of Germany reduces uncertainty regarding the economic strength of the Eurozone, thereby providing support for the euro. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is struggling to find meaningful support despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause on Wednesday. This creates an additional positive backdrop for the EUR/USD pair.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and that, under current conditions, it is more prudent to wait for further clarity. This suggests that the central bank is not planning to cut rates in the near term. However, the economic uncertainty caused by trade tariffs has forced dollar bulls into a more cautious, defensive position. Investors remain wary due to the rapidly shifting trade policies under President Trump. Reports that the European Union might impose tariffs on Boeing aircraft in the event of failed negotiations with the U.S. increase the risk of further escalation in the trade conflict. This also discourages traders from buying the single currency in the EUR/USD pair.Today, to seize better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of the U.S. weekly jobless claims data. During the U.S. session, a press conference by Trump is scheduled to take place in the Oval Office, which may provide momentum for the pair. Additionally, the speech by ECB Supervisory Board member Tuominen is expected to impact market volatility.

Technical Outlook:

If the pair falls below the support level at 1.1265, the next stop will be the psychological level of 1.1200. A break below this level will open the way for deeper losses.

The resistance level is at 1.1375; above that lies a supply zone at 1.1425. If the pair manages to consolidate in this zone, it may target the round number 1.1500, with the ambition of retesting last month's high near 1.1570 and possibly extending toward 1.1600.

So far, daily chart oscillators have not crossed into negative territory, which means the EUR/USD pair still has a chance to reverse north. Nevertheless, attention should be paid to shorter timeframes, where the oscillators have already moved into the negative zone