Gold is trading around $4,023.31, consolidating above the psychological $4,000 level but under downward pressure as it trades below the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) and risks falling further in the coming days.
If gold falls below $4,000 in the coming hours, the bearish outlook remains valid, and the instrument could retest the -1/8 Murray level, around $3,984. Even if downward pressure prevails, the price could reach the lower band of the downtrend channel formed since October 10, around $3,915.
Looking at the H4 chart, during the US session yesterday, gold reached a high of $4,082. This level coincided with the upper band of the downtrend channel, which pushed the price lower. Currently, we may be seeing some indecision in the market, so we must still wait to see if the downtrend continues or if a technical rebound occurs.
Gold is consolidating above $4,032 and above the 21 SMA in the coming hours. This zone could represent the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and could confirm a continuation of the uptrend, in which case we could buy with targets at $4,062.
A decisive break above the downtrend channel and consolidation above $4,070 could change the outlook for gold, and we could expect a strong upward move reaching the 7/8 Murray level around $4,140; ultimately, we expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,160.
The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels and is now giving a positive signal, so we will maintain our bullish outlook for gold as long as the price consolidates above $4,000.