The test of the 1.3445 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line — a confirmation of a valid entry point for buying the pound, which resulted in a 20-pip gain.
Today, the British pound continued to rise during the Asian session, benefiting from additional pressure on the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing government shutdown. This shutdown, caused by a lack of consensus on government spending for the upcoming fiscal year, has triggered a wave of concern among investors, prompting them to shift away from dollar-denominated assets in search of safer havens. The pound took advantage of the situation and strengthened as the dollar weakened.
Focus now shifts to the release of the UK Manufacturing PMI, an indicator closely monitored by analysts and economists. Given the recent mixed performance of the manufacturing sector, today's report is significant for assessing future momentum. Strong PMI readings would help support the pound and signal economic resilience, while weaker data could amplify concerns about a looming recession.
Additionally, today's release of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes will provide investors with comprehensive insights into the rationale behind recent policy decisions. Special attention will be paid to remarks on inflation, growth outlook, and risks to financial stability.
Rounding out the morning agenda is a speech by Catherine L. Mann, a member of the BoE's MPC. Her comments could provide valuable insight into the BoE's stance on monetary policy going forward. Traders will be analyzing her words closely for clues on when the central bank might pause rate hikes or even consider cutting rates.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.