XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is attracting buyers again, while the dollar has shown weakness during the day despite positive PMI data.On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that a government shutdown could inflict more significant damage on the economy than previously thought, weighing on GDP, economic growth, and the labor market. However, traders remain optimistic, expecting the effects of a partial shutdown to be limited. This optimism fueled new record highs on Wall Street and continues to support positive sentiment in the stock markets. This acts as an additional factor reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, although a large-scale corrective decline has not yet been observed.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice — in October and December — have strengthened after a weak ADP private-sector employment report released on Wednesday. This weighs on the dollar and continues to support gold.

At the same time, the U.S. is reportedly set to provide Ukraine with intelligence to support long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. President Donald Trump approved this decision, and U.S. officials are urging NATO allies to follow suit. Geopolitical risks are boosting demand for the precious metal, as it serves as a safe-haven asset.

Important U.S. macroeconomic data scheduled for the start of the new month — including NFP, the non-farm payrolls report — has been delayed due to the government shutdown. Nevertheless, speeches from influential FOMC members could stimulate demand for the U.S. dollar, giving short-term momentum to the XAU/USD pair heading into the weekend.

From a technical perspective, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart is in overbought territory, confirming price consolidation. Any decline will be viewed as a buying opportunity, limited to the $3820–3819 level. But a break below the key $3800 level would open the way to more significant losses.

On the other hand, resistance now lies at the historical high around $3896. Buying above the round $3900 level would be perceived as a new trigger for the bulls, creating conditions for the continuation of the recent well-established uptrend.