The test of the price level at 154.69 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling dollars. However, a significant decline in the pair did not materialize, resulting in a realized loss.
The dollar regained some ground against the Japanese yen, but this was seen as merely a technical correction. Yesterday's statements from Donald Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, put pressure on the US dollar in the USD/JPY pair. Investors reacted by selling following his comments regarding a potential adjustment in US monetary policy. Hassett specifically emphasized the need to explore options to reduce interest rates in the near future. Such statements, especially from representatives of the administration, are traditionally interpreted by the market as signals of possible intervention by the central bank.
Today, the Japanese yen returned to growth against the dollar after rumors circulated in the market that officials from the Bank of Japan are prepared to raise interest rates this month, provided there are no significant upheavals in the economy or financial markets during that time.
For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 154.83 (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 155.67 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 155.67, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level. It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and serious pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.47 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth toward opposing levels of 154.83 and 155.67.
Sell ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 154.47 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 153.81, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.83 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. We can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 154.47 and 153.81.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.