On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802, and did so once again on Friday morning. Thursday was a holiday. Thus, traders have already seen three rebounds from the same resistance zone. The decline may continue toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1718. A consolidation above the 1.1795–1.1802 level would work in favor of the European currency and increase the probability of further growth toward the next corrective level of 0.0% — 1.1919.
The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple. The most recent completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the latest downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks the bulls have regained confidence and are attacking with enthusiasm. The Fed's monetary easing is putting pressure on the dollar, and the ECB is not expected to create any problems for the euro in the near future.
On Wednesday, there was no news in either the U.S. or the European Union, and the entire current week is more holiday than work. I would like to remind you that the current year began with Donald Trump's election victory, which many immediately began to associate with a future weakening of the U.S. currency. Thus, 2025 got off to a poor start for the dollar. Even during his first presidential term, Trump repeatedly sought a weaker U.S. dollar, as he viewed its strength as a problem for exports. In his second term, Trump did not spend long talking about it and immediately got down to business. Of course, the U.S. president did not initiate a trade war in order to weaken the dollar, but in the end that is exactly what he achieved. The U.S. now receives additional budget revenues from import tariffs, and in addition, the dollar has fallen by 10–15% over the year, depending on the counter-currency. One could say that in the first year of his presidency, Trump achieved some of his goals. Next year, he may continue to pursue them, so I expect the dollar to fall even further.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and resumed growth toward the corrective level of 0.0% — 1.1829. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the U.S. currency and a moderate decline toward the support zone of 1.1649–1.1680. A consolidation above 1.1829 would increase the likelihood of further euro growth. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 18,446 long positions and closed 11,889 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and is only strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 268 thousand, while short positions total 129 thousand. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Then the shutdown began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. For example, the deterioration of the labor market. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's resignation next May.
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On December 26, the economic calendar contains no events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be absent.
EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:
Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.1795–1.1802 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1718. Buy positions can be opened on a close above the 1.1795–1.1802 level, with a target of 1.1919.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.