Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 2, 2014

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6136

R2: 1.6086 - Important resistance

R1: 1.6072

Current spot: 1.6054

S1: 1.6031

S2: 1.6017

S3: 1.5994

Technical summary:

Important support at 1.5846 has never been in serious danger of being broken and we have seen a prolonged corrective purple wave iv. This wave iv should not break above 1.6086 (the bottom of purple wave i - wave iv is not allowed to enter the price span of wave i due to the EWP), which means the possible upside progress from here should be very limited. We will be looking for a break below support at 1.6031 as the first good indication that purple wave iv has ended and purple wave v lower towards 1.5732. This low should be followed by a new correction in green wave iv. But for now we will focus on finding the top of purple wave iv most likely near 1.6072 for a break below 1.6031.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short from 1.5930 with stop at 1.6090. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 1.6072 with a low-risk stop at 1.6090.