USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CHF pair experienced a sharp global sell-off amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. Renewed protectionist rhetoric from President Donald Trump has once again raised concerns about a slowdown in global growth and instability in trade relations.

The decline in the U.S. dollar followed new statements from U.S. leadership confirming intentions to introduce additional import tariffs on goods from several European countries. According to Trump, 10% tariffs could come into force as early as February 1 on imports from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the Scandinavian countries, and could be increased to 25% if no agreement is reached by June 1. These threats, combined with diplomatic tensions over Greenland, are reinforcing the so-called "Sell America" trade, expressed through widespread selling of dollar-denominated assets.In the current environment, the U.S. dollar is under pressure as investors fear prolonged political uncertainty, retaliatory trade measures, and a loss of confidence in the country's leadership. As noted by Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG in Sydney, capital outflows from the dollar reflect concerns about weakening confidence in the United States and an acceleration of de-dollarization processes. These risks mechanically support the strengthening of the Swiss franc, which is traditionally considered a safe-haven currency during periods of geopolitical and economic instability.

For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the upcoming speech by Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel. Any signals regarding inflation prospects or future monetary policy could influence the Swiss franc in the near term. At the same time, persistent risk-off sentiment and rising global uncertainty continue to favor the Swiss currency over the U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, prices are moving toward the December low. The Relative Strength Index has moved into negative territory, indicating that bulls have lost control. Therefore, the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside.

Below is a table showing today's percentage change of the Swiss franc against major currencies. The franc has posted its strongest gains against the U.S. dollar.