Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 157.54 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 30 points.
Trump's statements that the war in Iran will continue for as long as necessary triggered another wave of dollar buying and a decline in the Japanese yen. Even statements from Japan's Finance Minister, expressing serious concern more about the currency than the war itself, did not help the yen. Rising uncertainty in the Middle East is traditionally a catalyst for demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency. Investors, seeking to minimize risks amid a potential conflict escalation, shift their assets into what they perceive as more reliable instruments. Conversely, the Japanese yen often suffers during periods of geopolitical tension, as its yield remains low and Japan's economy is closely linked to global trade flows that could be disrupted by any military actions. The Finance Minister's response highlights the dilemma Japan faces. On one hand, global instability negatively impacts the Japanese economy through reduced exports and investment. On the other hand, a sharp drop in the yen's value, even temporarily, can stimulate exports by making Japanese goods more competitive globally. However, excessive volatility and a weak national currency also carry risks, such as rising import costs, including energy, which can pressure domestic prices and consumer demand. For Japan, as a major export-oriented nation, maintaining a stable and predictable currency rate is critically important for long-term economic well-being; therefore, further USD/JPY growth may require currency interventions.
As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 157.90 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 158.25 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.25, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Continued growth of the pair today is possible following the trend.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.59 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 157.90 and 158.25 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 157.59 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.20, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak reports.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.90 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.59 and 157.20 can be expected.
Chart Explanation:
Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;Thick green line – estimated level to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;Thick red line – estimated level to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.