Markets are also questioning whether a ground operation by American troops and allies in Iran will take place. According to most military experts, achieving the objectives set by Trump is impossible without a full ground operation using ground forces and equipment. Trump's main goal is to completely destroy Iran's nuclear stockpiles, but all nuclear facilities are located deep underground. Even the most powerful American missiles may not be able to reach them. Moreover, assessing the effectiveness of missile strikes is extremely difficult, as the scale of destruction is not visible from satellites.
Currently, Washington hopes to achieve its objectives without conducting a ground operation, but Trump does not rule out such a scenario. A ground operation would inevitably result in significant losses of American personnel, and each American soldier killed is a blow to Trump's reputation and political ratings. Even now, not everyone in the US supports an attack on Iran, even under a noble pretext. Recall that Trump considers the nuclear threat from Iran dangerous to the US. The President stated that Tehran will never possess nuclear missiles capable of reaching the shores of America. However, many decisions made by the Trump administration in 2025 have faced outrage from American voters and taxpayers. A war in Iran (especially if the set objectives are not achieved) could cost not only Trump his political career but also his closest associates.
Political analysts are already predicting a defeat for the Republican Party in the upcoming elections. While it may not be devastating, at a minimum, the Trump party is expected to lose the House of Representatives. If this happens, it will be much more challenging for the US leader to pass any laws, unlike in 2025. Most of them will not get through the House of Representatives, which may be controlled by Democrats starting in November 2026.
Thus, it is extremely important for Trump to achieve the assigned objectives, disarm Iran, and avoid losing half of the American fleet and army during the operation. Interestingly, Trump does not explicitly aim to overthrow the current regime (at least publicly). However, he and his administration believe that under the current leadership, Iran will sooner or later resume developing nuclear fuel and ballistic missiles that pose a threat to America. Therefore, it is likely that the intervention will continue until the entire political establishment of Iran is destroyed.
Wave Structure for EUR/USD:Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form a bullish trend. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend could reach the 25 figure. At this moment, I believe the instrument remains within the global wave 5, so I expect prices to rise in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e can be completed at any time, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now prudent to search for areas and levels for new purchases, with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. However, the war in Iran should now be taken into account.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective wave set may be completed in the near future, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can currently advise searching for opportunities for new purchases with targets positioned above the 39 figure. In my view, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, but the recent events in the Middle East are currently complicating the corrective structure.
Key Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to play and often undergo changes.If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.There is never and can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.