Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD for March 11. One Last Push Remains

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which is encouraging. Recall that yesterday, Donald Trump announced the imminent end of the conflict in the Middle East, and later it was reported that the first tanker had passed through the Strait of Hormuz under the protection of the U.S. Navy. Thus, oil from the Persian Gulf countries may soon begin to flow into global markets, and oil prices are rapidly falling, reducing tension across all markets. As we mentioned, as soon as the situation starts to improve, the dollar will lose its only supporting factor—the complex geopolitics.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend remains intact, but traders can only orient themselves using the Ichimoku indicator lines. Thus, the euro still has one last upward push to overcome the Senkou Span B line, above which the trend can be considered upward. As for the macroeconomic background, it continues to have no impact on the currency pair's movement, but it may soon do so, as geopolitical factors are now taking a back seat. Today, the U.S. inflation report will be released, but we do not expect any new growth in the dollar in the near future unless the war in Iran reignites with renewed force.

On the 5-minute timeframe yesterday, at least four trading signals were generated. All were practically perfect. The price bounced three times from the 1.1615-1.1625 area and once from the 1.1657-1.1666 area. In all cases, the nearest target was reached. Thus, traders could have opened at least three trading positions during the day, each of which was profitable.

The latest COT report is dated March 3. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," and since Trump took office for a second term, the dollar has been solely falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but current developments around the world suggest this is a possibility.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, even amid the war in the Middle East. On the other hand, there are sufficient factors for the decline of the American currency. The global downward trend is still present, but what does it matter where the price has moved over the last 18 years? Since September 2022, a new upward trend has been forming, breaking through the global downward trend line. Thus, the path further upwards is open.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 300, while the number of shorts increased by 20,000. Consequently, the net position decreased by 20,300 contracts over the week.

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend amid geopolitical events in the Middle East; however, it may change to an upward trend soon. The situation in the Middle East is becoming calmer, so the geopolitical factor is no longer supporting the U.S. currency. The market may shift its attention back to macroeconomic events, and the dollar may not fare well in that regard...

For March 11, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1683) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1586). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to place a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Wednesday, the European Union has scheduled only the German inflation report for the second estimate of February, while the U.S. has a much more significant inflation report for the same month. Since geopolitical factors are weakening their influence on markets and currencies, the U.S. inflation report may provoke a market reaction.

On Wednesday, traders may consider short positions in the event of a bounce from the 1.1657-1.1666 area or from the Senkou Span B line, with targets at 1.1615-1.1625 and 1.1586. Long positions may be considered if the price consolidates above the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.1750-1.1760.

Price levels of support and resistance – thick red lines, around which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They represent strong lines.

Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.