Today, the euro and the Canadian dollar performed well under the Mean Reversion strategy. Under the Momentum strategy, I traded only the Japanese yen.
Inflation in Germany in February remained unchanged at 0.2%, in line with economists' forecasts, which may have partially increased pressure on the euro. However, rising tensions in the region due to the escalation of conflicts between the United States and Iran traditionally trigger investors to move away from riskier assets, which typically include the European currency. In addition to geopolitical factors, internal economic conditions should also not be overlooked. Despite stable inflation figures, several other indicators may point to hidden risks for the European economy. The slowdown in Germany's industrial production growth alone speaks for itself.
Next, traders' attention will shift to the United States, where several important macroeconomic data releases are expected. The central focus of the economic calendar will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, as well as the core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy prices. These indicators are crucial for assessing inflation trends in the world's largest economy and, consequently, for shaping expectations regarding the next steps of the Federal Reserve.
The publication of CPI data usually causes increased market volatility. Inflation rising above forecasts could strengthen concerns about a longer period of high interest rates from the Fed, which in turn would put pressure on risk assets. However, even data showing a slowdown in inflation pressure are unlikely to signal further rate cuts, as inflation is expected to rise again by the end of March.
Additional attention from investors will be directed toward a speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman, who is expected to comment on inflation, interest rates, and the situation in the Middle East.
If the statistics are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.
Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day
For EUR/USDBuy on a breakout above 1.1612, which may lead to growth toward 1.1645 and 1.1689.Sell on a breakout below 1.1580, which may lead to a decline toward 1.1550 and 1.1510.For GBP/USDBuy on a breakout above 1.3435, which may lead to growth toward 1.3477 and 1.3515.Sell on a breakout below 1.3405, which may lead to a decline toward 1.3374 and 1.3340.For USD/JPYBuy on a breakout above 158.53, which may lead to growth toward 158.83 and 159.20.Sell on a breakout below 158.28, which may lead to a decline toward 157.93 and 157.69.Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day