Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – March 17th

Only the euro was traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade anything using the Momentum strategy.

Rather mixed ZEW data from Germany and the eurozone maintained demand for the euro in the first half of the day. Traders may have interpreted these figures as a signal that the economic slowdown in Europe—widely expected due to the Middle East conflict—will not be as severe. This optimism helped support the single European currency despite ongoing concerns about inflation and possible interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

The focus will now shift to U.S. data on weekly employment changes from ADP and pending home sales. These indicators are generally considered intermediate. If today's ADP release shows a significant slowdown in job growth—or worse, a decline in employment—it could increase concerns about the resilience of the U.S. economy and put additional pressure on the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, pending home sales serve as a barometer of activity in the housing market, which in turn affects consumer spending and overall business activity. Weak data in this area may indirectly signal declining consumer confidence and a cooling construction sector, which is also a cause for concern.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

For GBP/USD

For USD/JPY

Mean Reversion strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

For GBP/USD

For AUD/USD

For USD/CAD