The GBP/JPY pair is trading below the round level of 213.00, showing reluctance to move lower but also lacking confident upward momentum, as market participants are waiting for the UK PMI figures. This monthly indicator will provide a timely snapshot of business activity in manufacturing and services, allowing investors to assess the state of the economy amid risks of supply chain disruptions due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Ultimately, this will have a decisive impact on the pound sterling and shape short-term trading opportunities for the GBP/JPY pair.
At the same time, the Bank of England's hawkish rhetoric—hinting at a possible key rate hike as early as April amid inflation risks triggered by the war with Iran—is supporting the pound.
On the other hand, the Japanese yen is under pressure following data showing a decline in the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its lowest level since March 2022, which has undermined expectations of imminent policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Moreover, concerns that rising energy prices due to the war could further slow Japan's economic growth are weakening the yen even more, acting as a catalyst for the GBP/JPY pair. However, rumors of potential intervention by Japanese authorities to stabilize the national currency are restraining traders from taking aggressive long positions and are limiting the upward potential.
Despite this, fundamental factors favor the bulls and support the prospects for a continuation of the recent rally in GBP/JPY from the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) support level around 207.15, recorded in February. At the same time, it is advisable to wait for a consolidation above 213.00 before opening positions for further growth. It is also worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart remain positive.