XAU/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

On Friday, gold showed moderate growth. Despite the U.S. Dollar Index rising above the psychological 100.00 level, mixed signals from the U.S. economy have slowed its advance. The release of March data from the University of Michigan presented a mixed picture. The Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 53.3 points versus the expected 54.0 and February's 55.5. The Consumer Expectations Index also dropped to 51.7 from 54.1. At the same time, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.8% from 3.4%, while the five-year outlook remained unchanged at 3.2%, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.

US President Donald Trump announced a postponement of military strikes on Iranian energy facilities, extending the deadline to April 6, 2026. According to him, the decision was made "at the request of the Iranian government" amid ongoing negotiations. However, this step has only partially reduced geopolitical tensions: Iran continues to maintain a firm stance, and uncertainty regarding further developments in the conflict remains. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East, increasing the risk of a new wave of escalation.Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support high oil prices, reinforcing inflation expectations and shifting investor focus toward possible monetary tightening. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2026 is estimated at around 50%, whereas before the confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, markets had been pricing in 2–3 rate cuts.

Rising US Treasury yields are also putting pressure on gold. The yield on 10-year bonds climbed to 4.45%, reaching its highest level since July 2025, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. At the same time, the dollar remains resilient due to its status as the primary reserve currency. Since oil and gold are denominated in dollars, rising oil prices often support the U.S. currency, limiting gold's upward potential.

From a technical perspective, oscillators remain deep in negative territory, supporting bearish sentiment. Bulls, at a minimum, need to break above the 100-day SMA to improve their chances.