AUD/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/USD pair continued its recovery after reaching its lowest levels in the past two months, strengthening for the second consecutive day, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Optimism in global markets increased notably after U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the U.S. military operation against Iran could end within the next two to three weeks. He also emphasized that Tehran does not need to sign a separate agreement with Washington to end the conflict, which boosted investor confidence.These expectations were reflected in the recovery of global stock indices, which in turn puts pressure on the U.S. dollar and supports the rise of AUD/USD. The Australian currency, for its part, is receiving additional support from the firm stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to the minutes of the March meeting published on Tuesday, most board members considered further monetary tightening justified in order to bring inflation back to the target range. In addition, positive PMI data from China indicates a gradual stabilization of economic activity in the region, which also strengthens the Australian dollar and supports the pair's upward movement.The easing of geopolitical risks led to a decline in oil prices during overnight trading, which contributed to reduced inflation concerns and a reassessment of expectations regarding further Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields remain at lower levels, and the dollar is correcting after reaching yearly highs the day before. This dynamic creates conditions for further strengthening of AUD/USD, especially ahead of an upcoming block of U.S. data.

On Wednesday, investor attention will be focused on the release of the ADP private sector employment report, retail sales data, and the ISM manufacturing PMI. In addition, speeches by Federal Reserve officials may influence the dollar's positioning ahead of the key labor market report—Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)—scheduled for Friday. Nevertheless, geopolitical developments will remain the main factor determining the overall direction of financial markets, shaping risk sentiment and volatility.

From a technical perspective, the price moving above the 100-hour SMA and attempts to consolidate above the 200-hour SMA favor the bulls. Oscillators are positive. However, it is worth noting that on the daily chart, oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory, indicating that bulls only have enough strength intraday. On a broader scale, bulls need to break above the 20-day SMA, or the round level of 1.700, in order to gain momentum for further growth.