GBP/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

The pound is weakening amid a stronger U.S. dollar following Trump's address to the nation. Spot quotes are declining toward the round level of 1.3200 after comments by U.S. President Donald Trump interrupted the two-day recovery of the GBP/USD pair.

In his address, Trump confirmed a 2–3 week timeframe and again threatened strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure if an agreement fails. At the same time, he stated that negotiations with Tehran are progressing successfully, although the Iranian side immediately rejected this assessment. Additionally, reports that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) support military measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns about further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.This situation is triggering a sharp rise in oil prices, increasing inflationary pressure and supporting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. At the same time, global risk aversion is strengthening, helping the U.S. dollar—as a traditional safe-haven asset—regain positive momentum after a two-day correction since the start of the year. Together, these factors are seen as the main drivers putting pressure on GBP/USD.At the same time, the UK economy is showing high sensitivity to energy price shocks linked to the escalation of the confrontation with Iran. Against this backdrop, risks to the UK economy are rising, and the Bank of England's hawkish signal about a possible rate hike as early as April, amid inflation concerns, further increases this risk.

From a technical perspective, a multi-month downtrend is observed. The pair is trading below all moving averages, and oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming a bearish outlook.