Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1769 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.
Eurozone business climate data came in significantly worse than expected, leading to a drop in the euro, though not as sharp as it could have been. The sharp decline in sentiment indices for both the eurozone and Germany, exceeding economists' forecasts, signaled profit-taking on previously opened long euro positions. The simultaneous strengthening of the US dollar also contributed to the euro's decline against the dollar.
In the second half of the day, financial market attention will shift to US data. Retail sales figures are of primary importance, as they reflect consumer spending, which makes up a large share of US GDP. Positive data would indicate strong consumer confidence supporting economic growth and would likely strengthen the US dollar. At the same time, the report on pending home sales will be released. This indicator reflects activity in the secondary housing market and serves as a leading indicator for the sector as a whole. Typically, an increase in this indicator signals rising housing demand.
As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1768 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1790. At 1.1790, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1756 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.1768 and 1.1790 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1756 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1734, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return today amid a hardline stance from the US and Iran.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1768 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1756 and 1.1734 can be expected.
Chart Notes
Thin green line – entry price for buyingThick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikelyThin red line – entry price for sellingThick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikelyMACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zonesImportant: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.