Oil prices surged by 2.5% but later trimmed their gains to 1.0% following reports that the U.S. Navy had seized an Iranian tanker carrying oil worth $380 million. This incident, which occurred in the Persian Gulf, marks another escalation in the already tense relationship between Tehran and Washington. According to the American side, the ship was detained as part of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as the oil was intended to support the activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which Washington has designated as a terrorist organization.
Iran, in turn, sharply condemned the actions of the American military, labeling them as "piracy" and "an act of aggression." Tehran has repeatedly stated that there will be no negotiations with the US as long as the "blockade" and "pirate actions" against Iranian vessels continue. This incident will certainly exacerbate this stance, making any attempts at diplomatic resolution even more complicated.
Many political and military experts have pointed out that the actions of the Trump administration are not aimed at achieving a genuine deal with Iran, but rather at maximizing pressure. According to them, Washington's strategy is to exhaust the Iranian economy and force Tehran to make concessions on fundamental issues concerning its nuclear program and regional policy. However, this approach could have the opposite effect, reinforcing radical sentiments in Iran.
Meanwhile, the US continues to increase its military presence in the Middle East. A notable example is the report from last Thursday that the third U.S. aircraft carrier, the "George H.W. Bush," has arrived in the area of responsibility of U.S. Central Command. This signifies Washington's serious intentions to escalate military conflict.
This bolstering of American military presence, coupled with ongoing incidents involving Iranian vessels, creates an atmosphere of high tension. There is a troubling sense that the region is on the brink of a new escalation, where diplomatic levers may prove insufficient to prevent more serious conflicts.
Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow targeting $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The further target will be the area of $113.30. If oil prices fall, bears will attempt to take control of $92.50. If successful, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $86.67, with the prospect of a further decline to $81.37.