The EUR/USD currency pair started the new week with an upward movement, although there were no particular reasons for traders to buy the pair. It is worth noting that a vast number of events and news occur in the world every day, but why should they matter to currency traders if they have no impact on the exchange rate of the dollar or the euro? For example, over the weekend, there was already a second "attempt" on Donald Trump. In the first instance, the shooter expertly hit the U.S. president in the ear, yet following that incident, no one saw Trump with any injuries or damage to his hearing apparatus. It's hard to imagine what kind of person could hit a target in the ear from several hundred meters away with a sniper rifle.
In the second instance (over the weekend), an unknown assailant broke into the White House and opened fire on the nearest security officer. Unlike the first instance, they only hit the bulletproof vest, causing no injuries to the security personnel. It should be noted that Trump was in the White House at the time of the event, but the shooter would have had to navigate through several dozen rooms and encounter hundreds of guards along the way. Trump naturally labeled this event as an "attempt on his modest persona," but, realistically, if Trump's motorcade were to travel down one of the streets of Washington, and an assailant several blocks away opened fire, that too could be considered an attempt on his life.
Thus, we pay little attention to such events, just as we do to the continuous stream of geopolitical news pouring in from the Middle East, which holds no real meaning or significance. For instance, what is the purpose of constant, daily reports on whether negotiations between Iran and the US are either set to resume or not? The media has been publishing various insider insights and secret information for a week, but representatives from Tehran and Washington have yet to meet, and Iran continues to hold firm: no negotiations until the Americans lift the blockade on Iranian ports. Therefore, the matter is settled—there will be no negotiations in the near future.
Against the backdrop of the absence of further movement toward de-escalation of the conflict and peace in the Middle East, oil prices are rising again, and the global economy is edging toward recession. It is essential to understand that oil shortages are not the worst scenario. The most concerning situation is the combination of oil shortages and rising prices. If oil prices are increasing, it means that all goods and services will become more expensive in one way or another. Rising prices for all goods and services do not mean that consumers will simply pay more; rather, they will likely buy and spend less. If they buy and spend less, industrial production will decline, import and export volumes will drop, and economic and business activity will wane, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth. This is a widespread problem at present.
The geopolitical factor has receded into the background, while the long-term upward trend remains relevant. Thus, nothing prevents the euro from continuing its growth.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 28 is 59 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1672 and 1.1790 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, there may actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a potential downward pullback.
Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1719S2 – 1.1658S3 – 1.1597Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1780R2 – 1.1841R3 – 1.1902Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend amid the weakening influence of geopolitics on market sentiment and a decrease in geopolitical tensions. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, so in the long term, we still expect the pair to grow. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.1672 and 1.1658 on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions become relevant with targets of 1.1790 and 1.1841. The market is gradually distancing itself from the geopolitical factor, while the dollar loses its only growth driver.
Explanations of Illustrations:Linear regression channels help to define the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility readings;
The CCI indicator – its entrance into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.