Oil prices are showing resilient growth, fueled by geopolitical tensions and logistical issues. Recent forecasts indicate that Brent crude oil could reach $150 per barrel if the current situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged over the next five weeks.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor, has effectively been closed to international shipping. The combination of the Iranian blockade and retaliatory actions from the United States has rendered this strategic route practically inactive. The limitation on supplies through the strait, through which a significant portion of global maritime oil transport passes, inevitably reduces market supply.
This reduction in supply, in turn, creates conditions for a sharp price increase. The market is reacting to heightened risks and uncertainty, discounting potential future shortages into current quotes. Continuing the current blockade will create a serious imbalance between supply and demand, triggering a steep rise in oil prices.
Yes, in recent days, there has been a minor flow of vessels, most of which are associated with Iran. According to vessel-tracking data, three Iran-related vessels exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait on Monday morning. No vessels from other countries were noted.
The war in the Middle East, now ongoing for nine weeks, has blocked huge supplies of oil and fuel from reaching global markets. After efforts to revive peace talks stalled, oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel, rendering the Strait of Hormuz almost impassable.
Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow a target towards $106.80, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The furthest target will be around $113.30. In the event of a decline in oil, bears will attempt to take control of $92.50. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to bull positions and push oil down to a low of $86.67, with the potential to reach $81.37.