XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Anticipation of a US–Iran Deal Weakens the US Dollar

On Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward movement for a second straight day, rising toward the round level of $4,700, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is located. The weakening of the US dollar across the broader market—driven by growing optimism regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran—is supporting further recovery in gold prices after the recent decline to the $4,500 level recorded earlier this week. Additional support comes from falling crude oil prices, which reduce inflation risks and limit "hawkish" expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, thereby strengthening investor interest in the precious metal for a second day in a row.

The previous day, US President Donald Trump announced that the military operation "Project Freedom," aimed at escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, would be temporarily suspended to assess the prospects of reaching a final agreement with Iran. In a post on Truth Social, he emphasized that the parties had made significant progress toward a comprehensive settlement. These statements followed comments from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who noted that the United States had no intention of further escalation and confirmed the continuation of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the conclusion of "Operation Epic Fury," launched jointly with Israel on February 28.Taken together, these factors have strengthened expectations of a peace agreement that could end the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and restore the functioning of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, may put pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, oil prices have declined amid these developments, easing inflation concerns and allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain a more cautious stance.However, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants estimate the probability of a US interest rate hike before the end of the year at more than 35%. This may limit traders' willingness to take active bearish positions on the dollar in the near term and restrain further gains in gold. In this context, it is advisable to wait for sustained confirmation of demand before concluding that a bottom has formed around $4,500 and expecting continued upward movement in XAU/USD.

Today, the market's focus is on the ADP employment report for the US private sector, which will be released at the start of the North American session. Additional influence on the dollar's dynamics will come from speeches by FOMC members and further geopolitical developments. However, the key event of the week remains Friday's release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will largely determine the short-term direction of both the dollar and gold prices.

From a technical perspective, a confident rebound from the $4,500 level and subsequent consolidation above the psychological $4,600 mark support a bullish scenario for XAU/USD. However, it is worth noting that oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory, and bulls have not overcome the 20-day SMA located at the $4,700 level. Only a firm break and consolidation above this level will give bulls the strength to continue the advance.