Beijing fizzle, Stargate risks, and trillions from Mars. Trader's calendar on May 18–20

The 47th President of the United States' visit to China left a strong impression of an expensive but utterly empty theatrical production. The most striking illustration of this diplomatic fiasco were reports that, before boarding Air Force One, the entire American delegation demonstratively threw all received gifts and souvenirs into the trash bins at the Beijing airport, and throughout the trip, paranoidly used only disposable phones. Behind the polished press shots, there was nothing: no trade breakthroughs, no agreements to resolve the Middle East crisis, not even a new architecture of communications between Washington and Beijing. For Trump, it was another vanity tour, a spectacle of self-admiration surrounded by loyal billionaires.

Xi Jinping, on the other hand, simply demonstrated great?power patience and total control of the bilateral agenda. The American leader's attempt to dictate terms looked openly tragikomical, given the baggage he arrived with. Trump flew into Beijing in a severely weakened position after his vaunted "Operation Epic Rage" effectively ran into a dead end. Despite repeated White House claims of "destroying" Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly blocked, and Tehran, not American aircraft carriers, is setting the rules of the game in the region. The situation for the US in the Middle East now looks significantly worse than it did at the end of February, and the administration has no clear strategy to get out of this trap.

On top of that, at home, Trump suffered a painful blow from his own Supreme Court, which blocked his key initiative from last year to impose tough trade tariffs. As a result, by mid?May, the geopolitical disposition remained exactly as it had been before the leaders' meeting. The routine exchange of pleasantries, Xi's stock promises "for all that is good," and Trump's customary vows of eternal friendship cannot hide the obvious fact: Washington simply has nothing to offer and nothing to use to intimidate Beijing. Trying to impose its will on China—which surpasses Iran by several orders of magnitude technologically, financially and in resources—while having no real levers of pressure was doomed to fail from the start. All the loud American talk about preparing "grand contracts" turned out to be just words, and the sides left the meeting holding the same cards they had before.

The complete failure of the Beijing summit on the strategic issues of Taiwan and Iran confirmed the absolute impossibility of a compromise between Washington and Beijing. Donald Trump dodged Xi Jinping's direct questions, promising only to decide soon on new arms shipments to Taipei, while Beijing offered only a non?binding framework agreement to buy 200 Boeing aircraft, with deliveries stretched over a quarter of a century and no firm legal commitments. America's trump card—technological leadership in artificial intelligence—also failed to make the expected impression, since China's AI sector is developing at comparable rates, leaving open the question of who will set the rules of the industry in a couple of years. The visit produced no joint communiqu?, no agreed commitments, and no extension of the trade truce.

Trying to make up for the Beijing fiasco, Trump vowed to soon take tough measures against Chinese companies buying Iranian oil and loudly declared that the US would "go back into Iran to finish the job." While the United Arab Emirates hurriedly completes a new pipeline meant to double export capacity, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz from 1.5 to 3 million barrels per day, the American economy has already lost $45 billion due to the Middle East price shock. The White House?initiated early?May military "Project Freedom," intended to forcibly convoy ships, led to direct exchanges of fire between American and Iranian forces in the strait and was hastily frozen by Trump at the request of Pakistani intermediaries. That suspension left the Strait of Hormuz tightly closed.

The oil market has unambiguously interpreted the events as a powerful bullish signal, registering the persistence of a severe supply deficit. According to industry commentators, the blockade of this key maritime artery has already deprived the global energy system of roughly 2 billion barrels of oil, equivalent to 5% of annual global supply. And that hole is growing by another 14 million barrels every day. The current relative calm on the exchanges, where Brent is trading around $105 a barrel, is deeply deceptive, and a full?scale catastrophe could be only weeks away.

JPMorgan analysts predict that a total exhaustion of inventories in developed countries will force Washington and Tehran to open the Strait by June 1 via a compromise UN Security Council resolution; however, many respected commodity market experts categorically disagree with this optimism. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global storage will fall to historic lows within a month, triggering widespread market panic and an inevitable surge in oil prices to $140 a barrel.

The tectonic shift in the artificial intelligence industry triggered by the legendary launch of ChatGPT has spawned not only colossal capital but also a tangible fear of a digital apocalypse in the labor market. Although official reports from developed countries still boast record?high employment, most Americans are gripped by uneasy premonitions, rightly believing that algorithms will make the hunt for new jobs an exhausting quest. The situation is compounded by the fact that the threat is being disguised:

The traditional consolation of historians—that technologies merely transform rather than destroy human labor—today collides with the unprecedented speed of advanced model evolution, forcing even staunch optimists to doubt society's ability to adapt painlessly. The main challenge is catastrophic stratification: the lion's share of profits accumulates in the accounts of a handful of data?center owners and infrastructure giants, while the real incomes of ordinary workers steadily lag behind. Against this backdrop, radical calls are growing louder in expert circles to prepare a social safety cushion now—introducing taxes on AI firms' excess profits and even discussing partial nationalization of technology leaders to avoid a large?scale political explosion.

A striking symbol of this imbalance has become Nvidia, whose market value has turned into an economic anomaly, exceeding the GDP of the vast majority of countries on the planet and trailing only the economic scales of the US and China. This mad rush for AI assets pushed the total market capitalization of the US stock market to a staggering $78 trillion by mid?May, after which a modest pullback followed. The phenomenal and extremely aggressive market rally—19% from March lows—took only thirty?two trading days. From a historical perspective, such parabolic impulses over such a short period are extraordinary. In the past 20 years something similar has been recorded only three times:

However, there is a deep gulf between past triumphs and the current madness. Historical experience shows that such powerful triggers were always compensatory, arising only after crushing falls of 30–50% and supported by massive monetary or fiscal injections from regulators. What we are witnessing now is a unique Wall Street precedent: the market has not merely recovered but rewritten historical highs at nearly twice the scale of the previous decline, without macroeconomic fundamentals or Fed support, feeding solely on pure faith in digital immortality.

The global financial landscape is rapidly plunging into chaos, where an escalation of the energy crisis, the hidden degradation of the American labor market and a collapse in consumer sentiment to historic lows are layered onto a deep split within the American political elite and a cascading decline of Washington's influence on the world stage. Against this background, an unprecedented sectoral polarization is flourishing: the runaway growth of the AI segment masks gloom and stagnation across virtually all other industries. A landmark event of this period was the complete liquidation of the Bill Gates fund's positions in Microsoft shares—the fund fully closed out its stake in Q1 2026, recording $3.2 billion. At the same time, the Anthropic lab is absorbing the lion's share of venture capital, raising another $30 billion.

At the forefront of this process is aerospace giant SpaceX, which is accelerating its Nasdaq listing planned for June 12 this year. The company is aiming for the largest initial public offering in history, hoping to raise $75 billion at a dizzying valuation of $1.75 trillion — despite net losses last year exceeding $4.95 billion. Investors are queuing up, dazzled by the fact that Elon Musk's empire controls more than 80% of the commercial launch market and generates over $4 billion of operating profit through the Starlink system.

At the same time, the billionaire is building an unprecedentedly tight corporate vertical. Elon Musk's total control over the board of directors and mandatory binding arbitration make his removal legally impossible. Added to this is an astronomical bonus package of $1 trillion tied to the fantastical goal of creating a Martian colony of one million people. The main financial trap the IPO organizers prefer not to discuss publicly is that SpaceX absorbed the AI startup xAI, and now a massive shortfall related to that neural network — some $6.4 billion — is reliably hidden inside the rocket company's balance sheet, forcing buyers to purchase a beautiful dream rather than real financial performance.

The brutal collision of this euphoria with macroeconomic reality will come via the Federal Reserve, where futures markets have finally revised the base-case scenario. Because US inflation has settled at its highest levels since 2023, the regulator has virtually no choice but to prepare for a new round of interest?rate hikes. The probability that the Fed will ease monetary policy even as late as July 2027 is now assigned by the market at a negligible 1%. Financial authorities are forced to tighten the screws in classic conditions of severe stagflation, with American consumer confidence at rock bottom and, beneath the glossy surface of official reports, the labor market continuing to inexorably lose ground.

18 May, 4:30 / PRC / New?home price change in April / prev.: -3.2% / actual: -3.4% / forecast: -3.5% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

In March, new home prices in 70 Chinese cities fell 3.4% year?on?year, showing an acceleration of the decline versus the previous month. The latest data marked the 33rd consecutive month of contraction and the deepest drop in the past year, confirming persistent weakness in the property sector. The statistics pointed to Beijing's obvious difficulty stabilizing the housing market, as gradual and targeted support measures have so far been unable to reverse the negative trend. Among the largest megacities, prices fell in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing and Tianjin, while Shanghai's price growth noticeably slowed. Month?on?month prices also fell. The April report forecasts a further deepening of the decline. If the final figure confirms that negative forecast, it will indicate a worsening of the real estate crisis, which would push Brent prices down and weaken the yuan.

18 May, 5:00 / PRC / Industrial production growth in April / prev.: 6.3% / actual: 5.7% / forecast: 5.9% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down

In March, China's industrial production rose 5.7% year?on?year, slowing compared with the first two months of the year under the influence of the geopolitical conflict. The slowdown affected the following sectors:

Within the manufacturing complex, growth was preserved in most major industries, including computer equipment, shipbuilding, chemicals and oil & gas. Production of non?metallic mineral products, however, declined. Monthly dynamics remained positive, and aggregate growth for the first quarter amounted to 6.1%. The April report is expected to show some acceleration in industrial production. If the forecast is confirmed, this will signal a recovery in industrial activity and lead to higher Brent prices and a firmer yuan.

18 May, 5:00 / PRC / Retail sales growth in April / prev.: 2.8% / actual: 1.7% / forecast: 2.0% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down

In March, retail sales in China increased 1.7% year?on?year, showing a slowdown due to cooling consumer demand. Category dynamics were uneven. Strong growth in sales of communications devices, office supplies and jewelry was accompanied by a sharp decline in the automotive, home appliance and furniture segments. The services sector continued to outpace goods retail thanks to stable revenues in catering, and measures excluding the automotive segment confirmed underlying consumption resilience. Month?on?month retail growth also moderated. The April report forecasts a moderate acceleration in retail sales. If data meet the forecast, this will indicate a revival in domestic demand and lead to higher oil prices and a stronger yuan.

18 May, 17:00 / US / NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for May (leading) / prev.: 38 pts / actual: 34 pts / forecast: 34 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile

The homebuilders' confidence index in the US new?home market fell to 34 points in April, marking a multi?month low. Assessments of current sales, expectations for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers all showed a synchronous decline. Against this backdrop, more than a third of builders cut prices. The share of builders offering various discounts and incentives to attract customers remained high, continuing a multi?month trend. The May report forecasts stabilization of the index at current levels. If the forecast is confirmed, it will reflect persistent pessimism in the construction sector and produce high dollar index volatility.

19 May, 1:45 / New Zealand / Producer price index in Q1 / prev.: 0.2% / actual: -0.5% / forecast: 0.8% / NZD/USD – up

In the previous quarter, New Zealand's producer price index fell 0.5%, reflecting deflationary tendencies at the production level after a slight increase in the prior period. This indicator records changes in firms' purchase and selling prices and serves as a leading signal for consumer inflation. A confident turnaround into positive territory is expected in the first quarter of the current period. If the actual report confirms the forecast, this will confirm a resumption of inflationary trends and lead to a stronger New Zealand dollar.

19 May, 2:50 / Japan / GDP growth in Q1 / prev.: -0.7% / actual: 0.3% / forecast: 0.4% / USD/JPY – down

In the fourth quarter of the prior period, Japan's economy grew 0.3% after a contraction in the previous quarter. Positive dynamics were supported by:

At the same time, net exports did not contribute to the overall result due to a decline in external trade volumes amid weakening demand. The Q1 report is expected to show continued modest growth. If actual data confirm the forecast, this will indicate ongoing recovery of economic activity and lead to a stronger yen.

19 May, 2:50 / Japan / GDP deflator in Q1 / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.4% / forecast: 3.1% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's GDP deflator in the fourth quarter of the previous period was 3.4%, a historical high. This indicator remains well above its long?term average, reflecting accumulated price pressure in the national economy. Analysts forecast some slowing of the index's growth in Q1. If the forecast materializes, it will confirm a continued high inflationary backdrop and lead to a weaker yen.

19 May, 3:30 / Australia / Westpac consumer confidence index for May (leading) / prev.: 91.6 pts / actual: 80.1 pts / forecast: – / AUD/USD – volatile

Australia's consumer confidence index fell to 80.1 points in the previous month, remaining deep in pessimistic territory. This indicator reflects households' assessment of the current economic situation and prospects relative to a neutral mark. A significant deviation of the fresh data from prior values will cause high volatility in the Australian dollar.

19 May, 7:30 / Japan / Industrial production growth in March / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 2.3% / USD/JPY – down

In the prior period, industrial growth in Japan slowed to 0.4% year?on?year, remaining well below the long?term historical average. In the March report, analysts expect a sharp acceleration in output. If final data confirm this forecast, it will indicate a significant rebound in the industrial sector and lead to a stronger yen.

19 May, 9:00 / UK / Change in employment in March / prev.: 84k / actual: 25k / forecast: 15k / GBP/USD – down

The number of employed people in the UK for the three?month period ending in February increased by 24k, showing a slowdown compared with the prior period.

The March report is expected to show a further slowdown in job creation. Confirmation of the forecast will point to cooling in the labor market and lead to a weaker pound.

19 May, 15:15 / US / ADP private?sector employment change (weekly) / prev.: 30.25k / actual: 33.0k / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile

The average weekly increase in private?sector jobs in the US for the four?week period ending in late April was 33k. The statistics indicate stable hiring rates and confirm the broader labor market trend of moderate staff additions with low layoffs.

19 May, 15:30 / Canada / Consumer inflation growth in April / prev.: 1.8% / actual: 2.4% / forecast: 2.6% / USD/CAD – down

In March, Canada's overall inflation rate accelerated to 2.4% under the influence of the Middle East conflict, which caused:

Rising fuel costs pushed up transport prices; housing and education costs also rose, while food inflation slowed due to base effects. The April report is expected to show further strengthening of price pressures. If confirmed, this will point to persistent inflation risks and lead to a stronger Canadian dollar.

19 May, 15:30 / Canada / Number of housing permits issued in March / prev.: 3.5% / actual: -8.4% / forecast: 4.0% / USD/CAD – down

Building permits in Canada fell 8.4% in February due to a widespread deterioration in investment sentiment in the sector. The deepest decline occurred in the non?residential segment, mainly driven by institutional projects, while residential construction showed modest growth thanks to activity in multi?family housing. The March report forecasts a confident turnaround into positive territory. Confirmation of the forecast will signal a recovery in the construction industry and lead to a stronger loonie (CAD).

19 May, 17:00 / US / Pending home sales change in April / prev.: -0.8% / actual: -1.1% / forecast: -0.5% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

In March, the number of US pending home sales fell 1.1% year?on?year. Negative dynamics affected most macro regions, including the Northeast and the Midwest, while the South recorded the opposite trend and modest sales growth. The April report is expected to show a slowdown in the rate of decline in the housing market. If actual data match the forecast, this will indicate stabilization of demand in the sector and strengthen the dollar index.

19 May, 23:30 / US / API crude oil stocks / prev.: -8.100 mln bbl / actual: -2.188 mln bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile

According to the American Petroleum Institute report, US commercial crude stocks fell by 2.19 million barrels, marking the fourth week of consecutive declines. A slight increase in gasoline inventories could not offset:

20 May, 3:00 / Japan / Reuters Tankan manufacturers' index for May / prev.: 18 pts / actual: 7 pts / forecast: 8 pts / USD/JPY – down

The business sentiment index of large Japanese manufacturers fell sharply to 7 points in April, interrupting a multi?month upward trend. The deterioration was caused by the oil shock related to the Middle East conflict, which raised costs. Weakness of the national currency also increased uncertainty in international trade. The May release is expected to show stabilization and a slight increase in the index. Realization of this scenario will confirm business adaptation to higher costs and lead to a stronger yen.

20 May, 4:00 / Australia / Westpac–Melbourne Institute leading economic index for May / prev.: -0.1% / actual: -0.1% / forecast: -0.3% / AUD/USD – down

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute leading economic index fell 0.1% in March, repeating the previous month's value. Meanwhile, the six?month growth rate turned negative, signaling risks of a slowdown in economic activity below trend in the coming quarters. Pressure on macro indicators is coming from monetary tightening and a spike in fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict. The May report forecasts a further decline in the index. If realized, the forecast will confirm deteriorating conditions and lead to a weaker Australian dollar.

20 May, 9:00 / Germany / Producer inflation growth in April / prev.: -3.3% / actual: -0.2% / forecast: 1.6% / EUR/USD – up

In March, Germany's producer prices fell 0.2% year?on?year, marking the lowest rate of decline in the past year. The slowdown of deflationary processes was driven by a sharp rise in fuel prices amid Middle East tensions, which offset declines in gas and electricity costs. Month?on?month, there was a multi?year record spike in prices. The April report is expected to show the index returning to positive territory. If data match the forecast, this will confirm rising inflationary pressure in the industry and strengthen the euro.

20 May, 9:00 / UK / Consumer inflation growth in April / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.3% / forecast: 3.0% / GBP/USD – down

Annual consumer inflation in the UK accelerated to 3.3% in March, a three?month high. Key factors were:

The April release forecasts a slowdown in inflation. If the forecast is confirmed, this will signal easing price pressures and weaken the pound.

20 May, 9:00 / UK / Input prices (raw materials and supplies) growth in April / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 5.4% / forecast: 5.8% / GBP/USD – up

In March, commodity prices and supplies in the UK rose 5.4% year?on?year, showing a sharp acceleration and reaching a multi?year high. Month?on?month dynamics also substantially exceeded market expectations due to higher costs of production components. The April report forecasts continued high growth in purchase prices. Realization of the forecast will intensify inflation and strengthen the pound.

20 May, 9:00 / UK / Retail prices index in April / prev.: 3.6% / actual: 4.1% / forecast: 3.0% / GBP/USD – down

The UK retail prices index rose to 4.1% year?on?year in March, exceeding the prior period and marking the highest level in recent months. Month?on?month retail inflation showed its strongest increase in a year. Analysts expect a sharp slowdown in April. If final statistics confirm the forecast, this will signal reduced retail price pressure and weaken the pound.

20 May, 12:00 / Eurozone / Consumer inflation growth in April / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 3.0% / EUR/USD – up

Preliminary estimates show annual inflation in the eurozone accelerated in April to a multi?month high. A sharp rise in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict was a key factor. Price increases were also recorded in non?energy industrial goods and food, while services inflation and core measures showed moderate slowing. Cost?of?living increases accelerated across the largest economies of the bloc, including:

The May report forecasts further strengthening of price pressures. If actual data match market expectations, this will confirm the resilience of the inflation trend and strengthen the euro.

20 May, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil stocks / prev.: -2.313 mln bbl / actual: -4.306 mln bbl / forecast: -17.631 mln bbl / Brent – up

US commercial crude stocks for the week ending in the first half of May fell more sharply than experts expected. At the same time, there was an outflow of crude from the key Cushing hub amid refinery activity increases and higher processing volumes. Gasoline inventories also showed a deep decline, while distillate stocks posted a token increase, and net oil imports to the country declined. Analysts expect an even more substantial drawdown of inventories in the next report. If the forecast is realized, it will indicate a growing supply deficit in the US market and push Brent prices higher.

18 May, 10:35 / UK / Speech by Megan Greene of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD

18 May, 11:30 / UK / Speech by Catherine Mann of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD

18 May, 15:30 / US / Speech by Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta / USDX

19 May, 4:30 / RBA minutes of the 5 May meeting / cash rate – 4.35% / AUD/USD

19 May, 11:10 / UK / Speech by Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor, Bank of England / GBP/USD

19 May, 15:00 / US / Speech by Christopher Waller, Board Governor, Federal Reserve / USDX

20 May, 2:00 / US / Speech by Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia / USDX

20 May, 2:30 / US / Speech by Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta / USDX

20 May, 16:15 / US / Speech by Michael Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision, Federal Reserve / USDX

20 May, 21:00 / US / Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting of 29 April / USDX

Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled for these days. Their comments typically trigger volatility in currency markets, as they can signal regulators' plans on interest rates.