Trade Review and Trading Advice for the British Pound
Due to low volatility, tests of the levels I identified did not occur. As a result, I ended the session without any trades.
Credit data in the United Kingdom had no impact on the pound, and few expected that the number of approved mortgage loans, even if it increased, would significantly support the currency under current conditions. However, these indicators are considered measures of healthy economic activity, so some positive impact on the national currency could have been expected.
Next, traders will focus on the release of important US macroeconomic data that may influence the dollar's exchange rate. The main event is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This indicator, which reflects labor market conditions, serves as a barometer of business activity and may provide insight into future economic trends. The RCM Economic Optimism Index is also expected. This indicator, based on consumer surveys, reflects expectations regarding current and future economic conditions. Positive dynamics in this index may indicate rising consumer confidence, which in turn supports consumer spending and contributes to economic growth.
As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3481 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3524 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3524, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move. Growth in the pound today can be expected only if US data comes in weak.
Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests the 1.3458 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward 1.3481 and 1.3524 can then be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3458 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3412, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider opening longs in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pound is expected to return if strong US data is released.
Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3481 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3458 and 1.3412 can then be expected.
Chart Explanation
Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.