XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold Ends a Three-Day Decline

On Monday, gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to break above the round level of $4,200 and, based on current dynamics, is ending a three-day losing streak after reaching a more than one-week low the previous day. Pressure on oil prices has increased after mediators Qatar and Pakistan announced agreement on a formal 60-day plan aimed at achieving a final peace agreement between the United States and Iran. This is contributing to lower inflation expectations and reduced risks of monetary policy tightening, which provides some support for gold.At the same time, market participants continue to price in a high probability of further interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve by the end of the year—approaching 90%. These expectations were reinforced by the Fed's hawkish outlook last week, which suggested the need for further policy tightening if inflationary pressure persists. An additional factor was the rhetoric of the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized price stability as a priority during his press conference and suggested that rate cuts could be delayed even in the event of slower economic growth.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical environment is exerting mixed effects on the U.S. dollar, which limits gold's upward potential. Iran has accused the United States and Israel of violating the ceasefire and announced the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump stated readiness for further military action against Iran if Hezbollah continues its attacks. Such statements highlight the fragility of the diplomatic process and maintain elevated geopolitical risks.

At the same time, increased Russian military activity targeting major Ukrainian cities in recent weeks has been observed. This is supporting the U.S. dollar, which is recovering part of its decline from Friday's lows after reaching its highest levels since May 2025, thereby limiting gold's upside and signaling caution for buyers. Going forward, markets will remain focused on news related to the U.S.–Iran conflict, which may continue to drive elevated volatility across global financial markets. In addition, comments from FOMC members may influence the U.S. dollar's trajectory and set the direction for gold prices. However, the current fundamental backdrop suggests that recovery attempts may be viewed as selling opportunities and quickly lose momentum.

From a technical perspective, unsuccessful attempts to hold above the level where the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) is located, followed by further declines, strengthen sellers' positions in gold. Oscillators remain negative, confirming bearish dominance. The nearest resistance is represented by the 9-day SMA and EMA. If overcome, the pair could move toward the round level of $4,300 and higher; however, upward potential is limited by the 200-day EMA. On the downside, traders have found support near the round level of $4,100.