XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold Remains Vulnerable Below $4,100

Gold (XAU/USD) fell below the psychological $4,100 level, reaching a new two-week low amid U.S. dollar strength. However, the price has since recovered and is now attempting to hold above this level.From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a short-term downtrend, trading below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The MACD (12, 26, 9) indicator is showing a weak bullish signal, with the signal line positioned slightly above the histogram. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a corrective upward move, although any recovery is likely to remain limited.

In the event of further gains, the nearest significant resistance is the 100-period SMA at $4,313.40. Sustained consolidation above this level would ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more meaningful recovery. Otherwise, the current range should be viewed as a vulnerable consolidation zone, and failure to break above $4,313.40 will likely keep the risk of further downside intact on the 4-hour timeframe.