The EUR/USD pair begins the new trading week on a subdued note, trading slightly above 1.1550 and approaching a new high since June 17, which was recorded following disappointing U.S. employment data released on Friday.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data for July showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, significantly below the forecast increase of 80,000. In addition, the previous month's figure was revised downward, showing an increase of 20,000 jobs instead of the initially reported 57,000. Additional data showed that annual wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly earnings, declined from 3.4% to 3.2%. This offsets the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in June and weakens the case for higher interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Nevertheless, the market reaction proved short-lived, as continued uncertainty surrounding efforts to restore operations in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz is supporting the U.S. dollar, which is viewed as a safe-haven asset. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of other currencies, is showing no signs of decline, also limiting the EUR/USD pair. However, traders remain cautious and prefer not to rush into positioning decisions while awaiting further developments regarding the situation in the Middle East.
From a technical perspective, the bulls have encountered resistance at the 100-day SMA. Once this level is overcome, they could challenge the psychological 1.1600 level and the 200-day SMA. The oscillators are positive, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand in the market. Therefore, the path of least resistance is to the upside.