GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Geopolitical Risks Limit the Pair's Growth

Today, Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair is fluctuating between modest gains and minor losses while remaining close to its August high. At present, spot prices are trading around the psychological level of 1.3500, with traders preferring to wait for important macroeconomic data from the US and the UK due to be released this week.

The key event is the US Consumer Price Index report, which will be released on Wednesday. On Thursday, preliminary UK gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter are due, along with the US Producer Price Index data. Meanwhile, amid the confrontation between the US and Iran, as well as growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish stance in response to inflationary risks caused by oil price instability, the US dollar continues to act as a safe-haven asset and weigh on the GBP/USD exchange rate.Iran currently rules out the possibility of any future negotiations with US President Donald Trump, stating its intention to wait until the end of his term on January 20, 2029, before resuming dialogue. This statement weighs on prospects for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen soon. Moreover, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continues to face difficulties due to a naval blockade carried out by Saudi Arabia with the support of Iran-backed Houthis. These developments have pushed oil prices to a one-and-a-half-week high.Nevertheless, market participants continue to price in a high probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once by the end of the current year. The outlook remains positive amid high US Treasury yields, creating positive momentum for the dollar. Moreover, the lack of follow-through buying after yesterday's break above the psychological level of 1.3500 calls for caution before any potential short-term strengthening of the GBP/USD pair.

On the other hand, the nearest support is at the 9-day EMA, followed by the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3425. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs are then located near the psychological level of 1.3400. A break below this psychological level could weaken the bullish trend and pave the way for deeper losses. However, if the 1.3500 level is broken, the GBP/USD pair will continue its upward movement and test the July high around 1.3555. As the oscillators remain positive, the bulls have the advantage.