The test of the 1.1544 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved considerably above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.
Accelerating inflation in Germany gave the euro a slight upward impulse, although the structure of the report was not as straightforward as it initially appeared. Consumer prices in Germany increased by 2.8% in July, compared with 2.3% in June, and the market initially interpreted this as an argument in favor of a more hawkish ECB policy, which supported the single currency. The main driver was fuel, which became 11% more expensive, while core inflation was only 2.4%.
In the second half of the day, the release of US inflation data will keep the entire market on alert, as it could set the tone for trading. The Consumer Price Index and its core reading, excluding food and energy prices, will be released, and both indicators are critically important because they influence the Fed's interest rate path. The core index is particularly important because it reflects underlying price pressures while excluding volatile components and is therefore considered a more reliable indicator for the central bank. For the dollar, this report remains one of the key drivers. A sharp increase in inflation would support the US currency through rising expectations of monetary policy tightening, while a slowdown in price growth would weaken its position.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1549 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 1.1579. At 1.1579, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected only if the US data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1529 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1549 and 1.1579 can be expected.
Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1529 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1495, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the data are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1549 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1529 and 1.1495 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.