The test of 1.3559 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential.
In the second half of the day, the pound's direction will be determined by a relatively light US economic agenda, as no important US data are expected and the British currency has no significant domestic catalysts. The Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index will be in focus. The former reflects manufacturing activity in a particular state, while the latter shows homebuilder sentiment. However, both indicators are considered secondary and rarely become market drivers. Under these conditions, the pound becomes dependent on external factors. Only a significant deviation from forecasts could disrupt the currency market and give GBP/USD a clear direction, while data in line with expectations will leave the pair guided by the dollar's dynamics. In the absence of significant catalysts, the British currency will most likely remain subdued, while its direction will be determined by the US dollar and overall risk appetite.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3563 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3587 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3587, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the level. A continuation of the pound's upward trend today can be expected only following weak US data. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3551 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3563 and 1.3587 can be expected.
Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3551 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3528, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return today following strong US data. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3563 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3531 and 1.3528 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.