The first test of 158.97 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the dollar's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell. The second test of 158.97 coincided with the MACD recovering from the oversold zone, which triggered Buy Scenario #2 and resulted in a rise of more than 20 points.
In the second half of the day, the US market remains without any important data, and the only releases likely to stir it are the Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index. Both indicators are considered secondary, as Empire Manufacturing provides only a regional snapshot of manufacturing activity, while the NAHB index reflects homebuilder sentiment. Therefore, they are likely to have a noticeable impact on the dollar only if they deviate significantly from forecasts. For the yen, this calm backdrop means that USD/JPY will most likely trade within a narrow range, with its direction determined primarily by the difference between the Fed's approach and the much more cautious stance of the Bank of Japan. This policy divergence continues to keep the Japanese currency under pressure on days without significant economic data.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 159.24 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 159.50 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.50, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential is relatively limited. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 159.08 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.24 and 159.50 can be expected.
Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 159.08 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.76, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 159.24 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.08 and 158.76 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.