The price test at 159.25 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by 10 pips.
The dollar weakened under pressure from two weak U.S. reports: new home sales in July fell to 607,000, while the Conference Board consumer confidence index declined for the second consecutive month. Particularly alarming was the collapse of the expectations component to 68.2, well below the 80 threshold, which traditionally signals an impending recession. This weakened expectations of a Federal Reserve policy tightening and pulled the dollar down. The weakness of the dollar prompted a strengthening of the yen, as the decline of the American currency amid weak data shifted the balance in the pair in favor of the Japanese yen. The gap in policy expectations between the two central banks began to narrow as the grim consumer outlook reduced the Fed's reasons for hawkishness, thereby renewing interest in the yen. The decline in USD/JPY has pushed the topic of intervention to the background, as the Bank of Japan enters the market to support the national currency precisely when it weakens sharply.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.16 (the green line on the chart), aiming for a move to 159.45 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.45, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 158.95, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 159.16 and 159.45.
Selling ScenariosScenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 158.95 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.63, where I plan to exit shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; it only takes a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 159.16 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 158.95 and 158.63.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.