Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations for September 3

Bitcoin yesterday fell again below $77,000 after a weaker-than-expected August ADP report failed to shake expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Ether was also under pressure at times but recovered and is now trading around $2,400.

The data showed private payrolls increased by only 38,000, versus a consensus of 47–48,000 and July's 46,000, the weakest hiring pace since January. Under normal circumstances, such disappointment would have eased hawkish expectations, but this time the market reacted paradoxically: the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting, according to CME FedWatch, remained in the 60–66% range.

The reason for this gap between weak employment data and persistent hawkish expectations lies in the energy market. Oil is once again actively heading toward the $100 per barrel area, and the 10-year Treasury yield has risen again to 4.818% — the highest since November 2023. It is this combination of rising energy prices and high bond yields that keeps the Fed's stance tighter than labor market data alone would justify, which puts pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Institutional flows have already reacted to this pressure: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $236.46 million, reversing the recent series of inflows.

The decisive data before the Fed meeting on September 15–16 will be the official August employment report scheduled for this Friday and fresh inflation figures, which could determine whether the weakness in the labor market will be outweighed in the central bank's view by ongoing price pressure from oil.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Bitcoin today on reaching an entry around $77,900 with a target to rise to $78,500. Around $78,500, I will exit buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $77,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the downside, targeting $77,900 and $78,500.

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Bitcoin today on reaching an entry around $77,300 with a target to fall to $76,500. Around $76,500, I will exit sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $77,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the upside, targeting $77,300 and $76,500.

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Ether today on reaching an entry around $2,412 with a target to rise to $2,444. Around $2,444, I will exit buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Ether can be bought from the lower boundary of $2,391 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the downside, targeting $2,412 and $2,444.

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Ether today on reaching an entry around $2,391 with a target to fall to $2,359. Around $2,359, I will exit sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Ether can be sold from the upper boundary of $2,412 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the upside, targeting $2,391 and $2,359.